Integrated Resource Planning and Clean Energy Planning

• PGE has already reduced emissions from power sold to Oregon retail customers by 25 percent below 2010-2012 baseline emissions. 

• Electrification of vehicles, homes, and businesses will accelerate load growth in the years ahead. This CEP/IRP anticipates and plans for that load as PGE decarbonizes. 

• PGE will need to add non-emitting energy resources and capacity at an accelerated pace in order to maintain system reliability, while we systematically reduce fossil fuel purchases and generation to achieve emissions targets. 

• PGE’s planned path to emissions targets features a linear decline in emissions associated with sales to Oregon retail customers from 2026-2030 and 2030-2040. Actual reductions may vary year-by-year due to variables that impact emissions that are beyond PGE’s control and/or the pace of clean energy acquisition and integration. 

• Achieving emissions targets reliably and affordably will require access to a wider geographic diversity of resources and the transmission solutions to access them. Participation in regional markets and partnerships that allow PGE to pool resources and source clean energy from across the West can increase reliability and lower costs for our customers. 

• Significant transmission constraints drive a greater role for customer-sited resources, including demand response and energy efficiency, and community-based renewable energy resources in this CEP/IRP. PGE plans to pursue all cost-effective energy efficiency and demand response during the Action Plan window. PGE establishes a target for CBRE resources of 155 MW by 2030 with plans to pursue at least 66 MW by 2026. 

• The growing role of customer-sited and community-based renewable energy resources in PGE’s decarbonization efforts underscores the importance of PGE’s ongoing efforts to enhance the capacities of distributed energy resources to provide local and system value when managed as a Virtual Power Plant. 

• PGE forecasts a significant capacity need of 1538 MW in summer, 1284 MW in winter, and a significant energy need of 1307 MWa (~4000 MW nameplate) by 2030.*

• Pathways to 2040 will require further development of non-emitting resources to meet the region’s energy and capacity needs. 

• PGE’s natural gas plants will continue to play a role in helping to meet our resource adequacy needs during the clean energy transition. PGE will continue to invest in the efficiency, safety, and emissions controls of those facilities as appropriate. 

• Efforts to specify the sources of generation for resources currently procured through short-term market purchases will reduce PGE’s reported emissions and future energy needs. 

• Utilizing federal, state, and local funding opportunities to support decarbonization on our system will mitigate customer price pressure during the transition. 

• PGE’s success will require deep and continued collaboration with our customers, communities, and stakeholders and with a wide range of leaders at all levels of government. 

*PGE had previously forecasted a capacity need of 1136 MW in summer, 1004 MW in winter, and a significant energy need of 905 MWa (~2,500 MW nameplate) by 2030 as documented in the filed CEP/IRP. The capacity and energy need was updated in PGE’s Addendum filing available here.

CEP & IRP full document

CEP & IRP portfolio analysis refresh addendum

CEP & IRP by chapters:

• Introduction

• Chapter 1. Clean energy plan

• Chapter 2. Accessing support for energy transition

• Chapter 3. Planning environment

• Chapter 4. Futures and uncertainties

• Chapter 5. GHG emissions forecasting

• Chapter 6. Resource needs

• Chapter 7. Community benefits indicators and community-based renewable energy

• Chapter 8. Resource options

• Chapter 9. Transmission

• Chapter 10. Resource economics

• Chapter 11. Portfolio analysis

• Chapter 12. Action Plan

• Chapter 13. Resilience

• Chapter 14. Community equity lens and engagement

• Appendix A. 2019 IRP action plan in review

• Appendix B. Compliance guidelines

• Appendix C. 2023 IRP public meetings agendas

• Appendix D. Load forecast methodology

• Appendix E. Existing and contracted resources

• Appendix F. Load resources balance

• Appendix G. Market capacity study

• Appendix H. 2023 IRP modeling details

• Appendix I. C-level analysis

• Appendix J. ELCC sensitivities

• Appendix K. Tuned system ELCCs

• Appendix L. Clean Energy Plan: Learning Labs community feedback

• Appendix M. Supply-side options

• Appendix N. Renewable curtailment

• Appendix O. Thermal operations/ output

• Appendix P. Acronyms

Deep Decarb Study

In 2021, Portland General Electric commissioned Evolved Energy Research to conduct an independent study exploring pathways to deep decarbonization for its service territory, called a Deep Decarb Study. This study was finished in 2022 and is an update to an earlier Deep Decarb Study that accompanied the 2019 IRP. The Deep Decarb Study explores potential pathways for economy-wide decarbonization across PGE's service territory given the enactment of House Bill 2021 and DEQ's Climate Protection Program emissions targets. The study does not replace existing tools or processes used by PGE to plan for resource and system needs in compliance with the law.

This analysis was completed prior to the passage of the Inflation Adjustment Act. To adjust for the impact of the IAA on PGE and our customers, an additional slide by PGE has been added to the study.

Energy Efficiency Methodology

PGE relies on the Energy Trust to identify energy efficiency measures available in the IRP. Energy Trust is a nonprofit organization funded by Oregon and Southwest Washington utility customers. Using a resource assessment modeling tool they identify what energy efficiency measures are cost-effective for PGE. These cost-effective measures are built into the IRP load forecast and assumed to be acquired in most portfolios. Energy Trust also provide measures they deem to be non-cost effective to PGE. Non-cost-effective measures are screened for current cost-effectiveness a second time using IRP models.

Climate Adaptation Study

PGE contracted with Creative Renewable Solutions to study the impact of climate change on PGE’s loads and resources. The study was requested by stakeholders and PUC Staff as part of the 2019 IRP acknowledgement process. It cumulates in a list of recommendations PGE can incorporate to better address climate change in long term planning. Based on the recommendations and discussions with the consultancy, PGE reduced the number of hydro and temperature years used in long term planning adequacy models to better align with the changing climate. The study also provided data, via the RMJOC, on how hydropower generation may change due to climate change. Using these data, PGE ran multiple sensitivities assessing how different future hydro conditions impact resource adequacy. PGE will take Creative Renewable Solutions recommendations into consideration for future planning work.

Flexibility Study

PGE worked with Blue Marble Analytics to study system flexibility needs. This study builds off the 2019 IRP flexibility study also conducted by Blue Marble. It uses a production-cost model, GridPath, to examine the PGE system under various commitment stages (day-ahead, hour-ahead, real time). It focuses on three items: flexibility adequacy, flexibility integration cost of new resources, and new resource (like batteries) flexibility value.